Recently, he put forward his forecast for the development of residential solar energy and energy storage market and technology in the United States in 2020 and the next 10 years.





It is not easy to predict the future development, especially when the solar energy and energy storage industries adopt emerging technologies and face higher requirements. Some predictions are put forward here, and it is hoped that the prediction of the user side energy system is roughly correct.






1. The matching deployment of energy storage system and solar power generation system will become the standard





Nowadays, few independent solar power generation facilities are deployed. Net metering, unreliable mains power, lower battery costs, changes in grid service functions and energy management functions will promote customers to choose solar power generation facilities and battery energy storage systems that provide more comprehensive services. When necessary, the solar power facility contractor's business will expand to spare panels and communication cable wiring, as well as complex commissioning and configuration procedures.





2. Need new cost indicators





For more than 20 years, the solar industry has been measuring costs based on installed capacity. However, adding battery energy storage system to solar power generation system will increase the cost and confuse the energy-saving calculation. We hope that experts from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) can better explain these new indicators.





3. Is there a corresponding application?





Mobile applications are the standard for customer system monitoring. In order for these applications to work properly, they must communicate reliably with a server somewhere in the cloud. Although Wi Fi, ZigBee and Bluetooth protocols are convenient and relatively cheap, they depend on the customer's router and Internet connection. Hardwired Ethernet or high bandwidth cellular protocols are more suitable for reliable communication required by customer applications.





4. Software is becoming more and more important





Experienced solar and energy storage system contractors will select the system according to the software functions: customer application, installation program commissioning, management interface and utility interface. Regardless of the capability and function of the hardware, the use of software must pay a certain fee.





5. Net costs rise rather than fall





With the rise of labor, inverter and rack costs, energy storage manufacturers are increasing the license fees and safety requirements of energy storage systems, and their regulations are more restrictive (especially battery deployment). Customers expect more integration with existing electrical systems. To make matters worse, the gradual reduction of the investment tax credit will increase the deployment cost of energy storage systems by 4% in 2020, another 4% in 2021 and 12% to 22% in 2022. However, lower hardware costs will not offset these higher software costs.





6. Battery and inverter integration





Unlike solar modules that can be interchanged with almost all inverters, the battery energy storage system will be designed and branded by the inverter company. The integration between the battery and the inverter is specific to maintain its integrity, performance and ease of installation. The contractor wants a focal point for solar and energy storage systems.





7. There is no standard energy system interface





There is a lack of coordination between various residential energy systems (solar energy, energy storage, electric vehicles, HVAC, lighting, etc.) and major home application providers Google and apple. Security requirements and lack of industry standards mean that it will take at least five years to integrate these devices. At the same time, dedicated applications for each major device will continue to be used on mobile phones.





8. Battery performance will remain challenging





The reliability and expected performance of the solar system have been fully proved. However, the performance of battery systems depends on more variables (temperature, utilization, building consumption, battery reliability, operating characteristics), which makes it easier to exaggerate the benefits of these systems and almost impossible to predict the cost savings.





9. Electric vehicles use better batteries





As electric vehicle manufacturers strive to develop and adopt batteries to improve electric vehicle mileage, it may take five to ten years to adopt more suitable batteries.





10. Dawn of industrial and commercial energy storage development





About two years ago, when industry-leading inverter and battery companies released well integrated turnkey solutions, residential battery energy storage systems began to develop rapidly. When these companies launch battery energy storage systems based on existing solar inverters, commercial and industrial energy storage customers will achieve the same growth.





Solar, wind and energy storage systems will play a crucial role in reducing carbon dioxide emissions that contribute to global warming. The energy industry will continue to step up efforts to address this issue and provide practical, influential and cost-effective solutions.
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